Sun, Dec 29, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 5, Florida Panthers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 215 | 218 | 543 |
| FLA | 29 | 312 | 113 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:34FLANoel AcciariAssists: Brett Connolly, Mike Matheson · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 6:33FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 13:31MTLTomas TatarPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 1:20MTLJeff PetryAssists: Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 2:12MTLMax DomiAssists: Brett Kulak, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 3:41FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.19 xG3–3
- P2 13:30FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P2 14:05FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–5
- P3 0:45FLAMike MathesonGWGUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–6
- P3 4:11MTLJesperi KotkaniemiPPAssists: Jordan Weal, Max Domi · Snap, 0.21 xG4–6
- P3 18:08MTLShea WeberAssists: Jeff Petry, Tomas Tatar · Slap, 0.02 xG5–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:18MTLNate Thompson: Holding2 min
- P1 11:58FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:47MTLBrendan Gallagher: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:16MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:37FLAVincent Trocheck: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:01MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:12FLAFrank Vatrano: Holding2 min
- P2 7:10MTLPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:23FLAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – Domi – Suzuki8:59
xG 0.77–0.20 (79%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault11:22
xG 0.78–0.55 (59%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Weal – Cousins – Kotkaniemi8:26
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Thompson – Barber – Poehling2:55
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMete – Fleury7:39
xG 0.44–0.12 (78%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Petry – Mete4:25
xG 0.28–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Weber – Chiarot13:25
xG 0.94–0.97 (49%)attempts 18–17goals 0–4
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:14
xG 1.82–0.76 (71%)attempts 21–12goals 5–0
- Connolly – Trocheck – Acciari11:38
xG 0.34–0.69 (33%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Boyle – Hoffman – Vatrano5:44
xG 0.02–0.44 (4%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Brown7:57
xG 1.07–0.50 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 4–0
- Yandle – Ekblad8:13
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Stralman – Stillman11:38
xG 0.55–0.49 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).