Sun, Dec 29, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Anaheim Ducks 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 014 | 08 | 14 | 235 |
| ANA | 18 | 05 | 013 | 02 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35ANAErik GudbransonAssists: Adam Henrique · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:45PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- OT 3:53PHIKevin HayesGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:45ANAJosh Manson: Holding2 min
- P1 4:56PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Interference2 min
- P1 18:06PHIMikhail Vorobyev: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:19ANAOndrej Kase: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:06PHIMikhail Vorobyev: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:56PHIMatt Niskanen: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier13:46
xG 1.01–0.31 (76%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Andreoff – Raffl – Aube-Kubel6:44
xG 0.57–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Konecny10:43
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Vorobyev – Farabee10:23
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Sanheim13:04
xG 0.92–0.25 (79%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Hagg12:48
xG 0.76–0.34 (69%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Provorov18:09
xG 0.28–0.62 (31%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKase – Steel – Jones14:08
xG 0.39–0.22 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Shore – Rowney8:02
xG 0.48–0.62 (44%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Comtois – Lundeström8:18
xG 0.09–0.36 (21%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Henrique – Carrick9:16
xG 0.40–0.67 (37%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Holzer – Larsson11:56
xG 0.47–0.48 (49%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm15:40
xG 0.59–0.80 (42%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Holzer – Fowler2:08
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).