Sun, Dec 29, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 5, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 311 | 08 | 29 | 528 |
| CGY | 09 | 19 | 17 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:29VANTyler MyersPPAssists: Jake Virtanen, Adam Gaudette · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 6:40VANTyler MyersAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 10:52VANJake VirtanenPPGWGAssists: Tyler Myers, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 18:36CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 6:14VANTanner PearsonAssists: Bo Horvat, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 19:02CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 19:35VANTanner PearsonENAssists: Bo Horvat, Alexander Edler · Backhand, 0.65 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:53CGYMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:14CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:16VANTroy Stecher: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:18VANAlexander Edler: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:11CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:21CGYRasmus Andersson: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:22CGYTravis Hamonic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:08VANChris Tanev: Interference2 min
- P2 17:46VANJay Beagle: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:46CGYTJ Brodie: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:20VANTim Schaller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson8:48
xG 0.59–0.27 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Pearson – Horvat9:27
xG 0.40–0.10 (79%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Roussel – Virtanen – Gaudette6:18
xG 0.17–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Beagle – Schaller – Motte8:22
xG 0.10–0.73 (12%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes5:00
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hughes9:25
xG 0.57–0.33 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Edler – Stecher10:14
xG 0.20–0.22 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk9:11
xG 0.33–0.21 (62%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Frolik – Rieder – Jankowski5:47
xG 0.36–0.24 (59%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Backlund – Gaudreau – Monahan11:11
xG 0.35–0.45 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube6:37
xG 0.20–0.45 (30%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Kylington11:34
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie2:14
xG 0.06–0.19 (23%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin9:51
xG 0.42–0.62 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).