Tue, Dec 31, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Islanders 4, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 27 | 211 | 04 | 422 |
| WSH | 211 | 110 | 018 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13NYICasey CizikasAssists: Scott Mayfield, Leo Komarov · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 10:39NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Nick Leddy, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 10:53WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
- P1 14:17WSHTom WilsonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 0:44WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: T.J. Oshie · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 4:27NYICasey CizikasAssists: Matt Martin · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P2 12:34NYITom KuhnhacklGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:43WSHDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:18WSHLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:25NYICasey Cizikas: Interference2 min
- P3 7:11WSHGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:11NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:00NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Martin – Cizikas11:31
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Bailey – Eberle – Johnston3:57
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Lee – Kuhnhackl – Barzal9:24
xG 0.58–0.82 (42%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
- Brassard – Nelson – Beauvillier11:32
xG 0.15–0.64 (19%)attempts 4–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews10:28
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pelech2:18
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy9:12
xG 0.55–0.55 (50%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson11:58
xG 1.16–0.60 (66%)attempts 29–6goals 1–1
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana10:51
xG 0.71–0.56 (56%)attempts 11–6goals 2–2
- Boyd – Leipsic – Hathaway6:29
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Panik9:26
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen14:52
xG 1.04–0.25 (81%)attempts 19–7goals 3–0
- Carlson – Orlov3:11
xG 0.52–0.14 (78%)attempts 16–2goals 0–1
- Orlov – Gudas3:19
xG 0.36–0.06 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).