Tue, Dec 31, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 1, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 013 | 011 | 130 |
| CAR | 114 | 18 | 114 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:55CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Erik Haula, Teuvo Teravainen · Deflected, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 3:48MTLMax DomiUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 7:34CARErik HaulaGWGAssists: Brett Pesce, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 19:06CARRyan DzingelENAssists: Lucas Wallmark, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.64 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:20MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:52CARRyan Dzingel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:55CARJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:49MTLRyan Poehling: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:54CARRyan Dzingel: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Weal – Vejdemo5:05
xG 0.16–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Tatar – Weal – Danault3:07
xG 0.09–0.03 (71%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Cousins – Poehling – Kotkaniemi8:16
xG 0.45–0.47 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Domi – Suzuki11:42
xG 0.57–0.82 (41%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMete – Fleury11:54
xG 0.98–0.52 (66%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Petry – Kulak14:39
xG 0.60–0.82 (42%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Weber – Chiarot16:31
xG 0.59–1.44 (29%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Foegele – Svechnikov13:08
xG 1.21–0.83 (59%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho12:02
xG 0.82–0.57 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Haula – Dzingel – Necas8:27
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Wallmark5:32
xG 0.04–0.29 (13%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Fleury8:26
xG 0.43–0.00 (99%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin18:32
xG 1.08–0.67 (62%)attempts 22–19goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Pesce11:48
xG 1.11–1.16 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).