Tue, Dec 31, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
San Jose Sharks 0, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 09 | 011 | 014 | 034 |
| DET | 010 | 19 | 14 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:15DETTyler BertuzziGWGAssists: Madison Bowey, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 19:11DETFilip HronekENAssists: Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.46 xG0–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:06DETAlex Biega: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:57SJSBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:27DETTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P2 13:18DETTyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:18SJSStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:14DETMadison Bowey: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:59DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:59SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:30SJSStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Goodrow
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Sorensen – Labanc2:37
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Couture – Noesen – Hertl4:14
xG 0.25–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Noesen – Suomela – Kellman5:54
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Couture – Hertl – Labanc7:01
xG 0.06–0.26 (19%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Simek14:21
xG 0.82–0.45 (65%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon15:09
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson14:00
xG 0.41–1.24 (25%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Erne – Ehn6:23
xG 0.52–0.11 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening9:01
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Fabbri9:36
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Filppula – Smith – Zadina7:24
xG 0.32–0.43 (42%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Lashoff8:05
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Daley – Bowey12:53
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Hronek14:45
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).