Tue, Dec 31, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 314 | 110 | 19 | 533 |
| CGY | 010 | 116 | 218 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:14CHIOlli MaattaAssists: Patrick Kane, Dylan Sikura · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 5:35CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 12:44CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Dylan Sikura, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 9:41CHIDylan StromeGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–0
- P2 19:54CGYSam BennettAssists: Derek Ryan, Milan Lucic · Slap, 0.21 xG4–1
- P3 15:30CGYMichael FrolikSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 16:48CGYSean MonahanAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
- P3 19:59CHIPatrick KaneENAssists: Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.58 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:01CGYDerek Ryan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:02CGYZac Rinaldo: Charging2 min
- P2 8:15CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:05CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:32CGYRasmus Andersson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Rieder
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Strome – DeBrincat – Dach10:46
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Kane – Carpenter – Sikura10:59
xG 0.63–0.90 (41%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
- Toews – Kubalik – Quenneville11:41
xG 0.33–0.67 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Smith – Highmore – Kampf10:24
xG 0.13–0.54 (20%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Murphy3:18
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Murphy – Gustafsson14:48
xG 0.61–0.87 (41%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Keith – Boqvist14:12
xG 0.57–0.86 (40%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk6:04
xG 0.60–0.18 (77%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Gaudreau – Ryan6:34
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Bennett – Ryan6:04
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk6:05
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin15:16
xG 0.81–0.38 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Giordano – Andersson17:50
xG 1.08–0.73 (60%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Stone – Kylington14:17
xG 0.49–0.82 (37%)attempts 13–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).