Tue, Dec 31, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 015 | 19 | 211 | 335 |
| LAK | 415 | 010 | 14 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:31LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Matt Luff, Michael Amadio · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 6:57LAKAlex IafalloPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Adrian Kempe · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 8:45LAKTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–3
- P1 17:52LAKAdrian KempeSHGWGAssists: Blake Lizotte, Kurtis MacDermid · Snap, 0.06 xG0–4
- P2 14:59PHIJustin BraunAssists: Mikhail Vorobyev · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–4
- P3 1:31LAKMartin FrkPPAssists: Sean Walker, Nikolai Prokhorkin · Slap, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 7:16PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 17:08PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Justin Braun, Jakub Voracek · Deflected, 0.18 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:10PHIRobert Hagg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 8:07PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:23LAKAnze Kopitar: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:59LAKAustin Wagner: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:36PHIScott Laughton: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:14LAKAnze Kopitar: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Pitlick – Vorobyev2:46
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier9:01
xG 0.49–0.12 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Voracek – Laughton – Farabee4:18
xG 0.33–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Aube-Kubel – Vorobyev – Farabee6:11
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Sanheim9:45
xG 0.87–0.04 (95%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Provorov6:09
xG 0.85–0.14 (86%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Gostisbehere5:23
xG 0.35–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Clifford – Amadio – Luff4:58
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Carter – Frk – Prokhorkin4:27
xG 0.00–0.22 (2%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kempe – Wagner – Lizotte10:04
xG 0.39–0.70 (36%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Iafallo11:37
xG 0.09–0.54 (14%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hutton – Roy15:20
xG 0.53–0.80 (40%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Doughty – Walker17:36
xG 0.30–0.92 (25%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).