Wed, Jan 1, 2020·Cotton Bowl Stadium, DallasOutdoor game
Nashville Predators 2, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 210 | 012 | 011 | 233 |
| DAL | 08 | 116 | 311 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:46NSHMatt DuchenePPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 7:36NSHDante FabbroAssists: Matt Duchene, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 18:52DALBlake ComeauAssists: Jason Dickinson, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 0:58DALMattias JanmarkAssists: John Klingberg, Roope Hintz · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 5:06DALAlexander RadulovGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 6:35DALAndrej SekeraAssists: Radek Faksa, Mattias Janmark · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:44DALCorey Perry: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 2:44DALCorey Perry: Elbowing5 min · PPG
- P1 4:22DALBlake Comeau: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:38NSHMatt Irwin: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P1 11:27DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:27NSHColin Blackwell: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:00DALTyler Seguin: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:44NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:11NSHColin Blackwell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:42NSHRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Smith – Grimaldi8:07
xG 1.41–0.50 (74%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg9:02
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Arvidsson9:01
xG 0.54–0.75 (42%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Turris – Watson – Blackwell5:25
xG 0.00–0.68 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Irwin5:25
xG 1.03–0.63 (62%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Josi – Fabbro13:22
xG 0.93–0.83 (53%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Fabbro2:14
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Gurianov4:56
xG 0.71–0.16 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin9:35
xG 0.94–0.39 (71%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa4:53
xG 0.54–0.17 (77%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Dickinson2:31
xG 0.21–0.03 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen12:36
xG 1.40–0.40 (78%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell14:28
xG 0.99–0.46 (68%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Sekera – Heiskanen2:12
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).