Thu, Jan 2, 2020·TD Garden, Boston
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Boston Bruins 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 09 | 014 | 19 | 11 | 233 |
| BOS | 08 | 112 | 06 | 00 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:07BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Torey Krug, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 2:06CBJSonny MilanoAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- OT 0:52CBJPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: Seth Jones · Snap, 0.22 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:48CBJNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:02CBJDean Kukan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:36BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min
- P2 19:15BOSZdeno Chara: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – MacInnis – Lilja7:39
xG 0.44–0.07 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Dubois – Robinson3:11
xG 0.20–0.05 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Wennberg – Milano3:41
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Gerbe – Stenlund – Dubois7:53
xG 0.06–0.02 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Gavrikov17:26
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski21:25
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Harrington – Kukan12:47
xG 0.48–0.87 (35%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak14:40
xG 0.69–0.20 (78%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Heinen – Bjork – Lindholm9:18
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly9:21
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Coyle – DeBrusk11:55
xG 0.19–0.45 (30%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Grzelcyk7:59
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo5:23
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Krug – McAvoy4:57
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).