Thu, Jan 2, 2020·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Edmonton Oilers 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 214 | 08 | 05 | 00 | 227 |
| BUF | 15 | 010 | 18 | 13 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:06EDMRiley SheahanAssists: Josh Archibald, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 7:00EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P1 8:39BUFCurtis LazarAssists: Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P3 3:53BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Zach Bogosian, Victor Olofsson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 1:09BUFJack EichelGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:56EDMZack Kassian: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:55BUFMarcus Johansson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:01EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
- OT 1:09EDMOscar Klefbom: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto13:40
xG 0.59–0.07 (89%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Neal – Kassian – McDavid15:39
xG 0.61–0.46 (57%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Nygard – Haas6:53
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Khaira7:58
xG 0.31–0.79 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestKlefbom – Bear20:16
xG 0.68–0.37 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Russell – Nurse20:04
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Larsson – Lagesson9:21
xG 0.29–0.87 (25%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Vesey – Sheary9:27
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Eichel – Asplund4:35
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons11:40
xG 0.21–0.51 (29%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel12:04
xG 0.11–0.66 (14%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Dahlin7:16
xG 0.69–0.04 (94%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Bogosian – McCabe6:17
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Miller3:43
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).