Thu, Jan 2, 2020·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
San Jose Sharks 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 28 | 010 | 012 | 12 | 332 |
| PIT | 115 | 112 | 011 | 00 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:48SJSTomas HertlAssists: Brent Burns, Joel Kellman · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 16:51PITPatric HornqvistUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 17:51SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 19:09PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Bryan Rust, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 2:02SJSBrent BurnsPPGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Kevin Labanc · Slap, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 16:17PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
- P2 17:03SJSBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:14SJSJoe Thornton: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:46PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Noesen – Karlsson – Kellman9:01
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Hertl15:39
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc9:21
xG 0.18–0.23 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Kane – Goodrow – Meier14:00
xG 0.21–0.56 (27%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Simek12:46
xG 0.33–0.25 (56%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Burns – Dillon19:10
xG 0.80–0.85 (48%)attempts 24–21goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson18:45
xG 0.29–0.91 (24%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – McCann – Simon13:10
xG 0.68–0.11 (86%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rust – Galchenyuk16:57
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Blandisi – Lafferty – Kahun5:28
xG 0.11–0.27 (30%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese11:35
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino18:12
xG 0.45–0.26 (64%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Johnson – Letang9:37
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Letang – Riikola10:45
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).