Thu, Jan 2, 2020·Pepsi Center, Denver
St. Louis Blues 3, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 211 | 18 | 327 |
| COL | 19 | 322 | 311 | 742 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:49COLNathan MacKinnonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 3:20COLNazem KadriAssists: Samuel Girard, Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 7:40COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 13:42STLRobert ThomasAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Tyler Bozak · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 16:19STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 19:44COLCale MakarPPGWGAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 6:56COLNazem KadriAssists: Samuel Girard, Valeri Nichushkin · Slap, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 12:05COLJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.57 xG2–6
- P3 14:19COLJoonas DonskoiAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Slap, 0.04 xG2–7
- P3 16:14STLRobert ThomasAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:10COLJoonas Donskoi: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:50COLMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:18STLBrayden Schenn: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:41STLTyler Bozak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:36STLAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:15COLSamuel Girard: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:59STLJay Bouwmeester: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:22STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMacEachern – de la Rose – Sanford3:51
xG 0.14–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bozak – Schwartz – Thomas2:32
xG 0.16–0.04 (78%)attempts 1–1goals 1–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford4:05
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Schenn2:39
xG 0.10–0.10 (48%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Dunn2:52
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko15:00
xG 0.74–0.71 (51%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Dunn2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – Bellemare – Jost7:04
xG 0.89–0.10 (90%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Donskoi – Landeskog – MacKinnon10:19
xG 0.57–0.08 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Calvert – Kadri – Nichushkin10:26
xG 0.29–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Nieto – Compher – Rantanen10:08
xG 0.25–0.50 (33%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard10:04
xG 1.07–0.20 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 2–1
- Cole – Zadorov10:41
xG 0.74–0.22 (77%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov2:15
xG 0.09–0.02 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).