Thu, Jan 2, 2020·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 212 | 113 | 113 | 438 |
| VGK | 418 | 15 | 010 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:33PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 8:42VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 10:08VGKMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 11:27VGKJon MerrillAssists: Nicolas Roy · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–3
- P1 14:40PHITravis KonecnyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P1 17:03VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Mark Stone · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–4
- P2 9:37VGKCody GlassGWGAssists: William Carrier · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–5
- P2 12:08PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–5
- P3 0:15PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:52PHISean Couturier: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:23VGKNick Holden: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 18:15VGKRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:14VGKReilly Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:31VGKDeryk Engelland: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Pitlick – Raffl – Farabee2:07
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Konecny14:47
xG 0.81–0.98 (45%)attempts 19–20goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier14:31
xG 0.41–0.60 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 2–1
- Pitlick – Laughton – Farabee7:28
xG 0.19–0.47 (29%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Provorov16:29
xG 0.78–0.72 (52%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Sanheim – Provorov3:15
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Braun – Gostisbehere15:34
xG 0.55–0.94 (37%)attempts 17–22goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Carrier – Glass9:19
xG 0.71–0.15 (83%)attempts 11–2goals 2–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson14:17
xG 0.89–0.37 (70%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Tuch13:58
xG 0.71–0.75 (49%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Theodore16:39
xG 1.46–0.36 (80%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Engelland – Hague8:25
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- McNabb – Schmidt17:52
xG 0.40–0.90 (31%)attempts 14–21goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).