Fri, Jan 3, 2020·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 09 | 05 | 123 |
| DAL | 19 | 211 | 17 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47DETDylan LarkinAssists: Robby Fabbri, Brian Lashoff · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 11:13DALRoope HintzSHAssists: Esa Lindell, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 1:36DALRadek FaksaPPGWGAssists: Esa Lindell, Roope Hintz · Slap, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 11:42DALJoe PavelskiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 17:04DALAndrej SekeraENAssists: Esa Lindell, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:28DALRadek Faksa: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 11:54DETGivani Smith: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:10DETBrian Lashoff: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:14DETMadison Bowey: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:41DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:50DALJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:38DETJonathan Bernier: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:45DALRoman Polak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Ehn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Larkin – Fabbri11:36
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Filppula – Glendening – Zadina3:09
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Filppula – Smith – Zadina2:16
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening3:23
xG 0.06–0.36 (15%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLashoff – Bowey8:23
xG 0.23–0.04 (85%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Green – Lashoff3:32
xG 0.21–0.05 (82%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Daley – Green9:13
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Gurianov7:43
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin9:45
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Janmark – Dickinson – Kiviranta5:54
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa7:12
xG 0.09–0.42 (18%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Polak3:27
xG 0.17–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – Fedun6:20
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Polak – Lindell9:40
xG 0.51–0.49 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).