Sat, Jan 4, 2020·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 110 | 14 | 00 | 221 |
| MIN | 113 | 011 | 116 | 14 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Luke Kunin · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 0:39WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 0:52WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 14:30MINLuke KuninAssists: Marcus Foligno, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 1:52MINEric StaalPPGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:40WPGNeal Pionk: Interference2 min
- P1 7:45WPGNeal Pionk: Interference2 min
- P2 0:22MINKevin Fiala: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:21MINLuke Kunin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 7:37WPGPatrik Laine: Interference2 min
- P2 7:55WPGTucker Poolman: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:52WPGTucker Poolman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:01MINJordan Greenway: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- OT 0:54WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Wheeler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Shore – Appleton3:03
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic11:20
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine11:01
xG 0.02–0.30 (7%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Perreault – Lowry – Harkins10:42
xG 0.14–0.61 (18%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bitetto – Dahlstrom7:39
xG 0.12–0.08 (59%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Poolman – Morrissey14:11
xG 0.52–1.00 (34%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Sbisa – Pionk17:01
xG 0.07–0.64 (10%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zuccarello – Greenway7:46
xG 0.48–0.07 (86%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Fiala10:36
xG 0.52–0.22 (71%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin10:14
xG 0.39–0.20 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Staal – Zuccarello – Donato4:28
xG 0.01–0.03 (29%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:32
xG 1.16–0.33 (78%)attempts 23–16goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba14:23
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Hunt – Soucy9:44
xG 0.31–0.14 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).