Sat, Jan 4, 2020·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
St. Louis Blues 4, Vegas Golden Knights 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 311 | 013 | 16 | 01 | 431 |
| VGK | 08 | 212 | 211 | 12 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:05STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: David Perron, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 12:41STLJaden SchwartzAssists: David Perron, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 16:16STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Alexander Steen · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 13:10VGKRyan ReavesUnassisted · Snap, 0.36 xG3–1
- P2 15:32VGKPaul StastnyAssists: William Carrier, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 3:02VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Nicolas Hague, Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
- P3 9:50VGKReilly SmithAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 12:50STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.03 xG4–4
- OT 3:01VGKChandler StephensonGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.27 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:29VGKDeryk Engelland: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:09VGKNicolas Hague: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:09STLMackenzie MacEachern: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:09VGKMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:09STLZachary Sanford: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:09VGKDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:10STLJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P3 12:08VGKChandler Stephenson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:49VGKMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:49STLDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:44STLRobert Thomas: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Barbashev
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Schwartz13:32
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Bozak – Schenn – Thomas12:57
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- MacEachern – de la Rose – Sanford6:59
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
- Steen – Sundqvist – Barbashev12:38
xG 0.26–0.60 (30%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Walman9:53
xG 0.77–0.14 (85%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Faulk21:19
xG 0.64–0.82 (44%)attempts 11–26goals 0–2
- Pietrangelo – Dunn16:32
xG 0.37–0.95 (28%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Nosek – Roy7:41
xG 0.81–0.38 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Stastny – Carrier – Tuch3:50
xG 0.39–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson6:21
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Carrier2:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – McNabb7:24
xG 0.58–0.03 (95%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Engelland – Hague13:38
xG 1.05–0.53 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 3–1
- Holden – Theodore10:32
xG 0.09–0.06 (62%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).