Sat, Jan 4, 2020·Centre Bell, Montreal
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Montréal Canadiens 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 010 | 114 | 12 | 337 |
| MTL | 16 | 113 | 09 | 00 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:42MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Max Domi, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 9:28PITZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P2 3:37MTLArtturi LehkonenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 5:24PITBryan RustAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 1:49PITBrandon TanevGWGAssists: Teddy Blueger, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:25PITMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min
- P1 12:42PITJoseph Blandisi: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:42MTLShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:09PITMarcus Pettersson: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:09MTLMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:09MTLMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:14PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:34MTLShea Weber: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:23PITJohn Marino: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:08MTLMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:50PITJack Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:32MTLPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rust – Kahun6:12
xG 0.89–0.08 (92%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese10:45
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rust – Galchenyuk4:17
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – McCann – Simon8:27
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Letang13:42
xG 1.32–0.28 (82%)attempts 22–7goals 1–1
- Ruhwedel – Riikola7:36
xG 0.75–0.30 (71%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Marino13:24
xG 0.26–0.42 (39%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Lehkonen – Domi – Suzuki9:36
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Thompson – Weise – Lehkonen2:02
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Cousins – Danault11:38
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Thompson – Weise – Vejdemo4:15
xG 0.03–0.42 (6%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Fleury9:03
xG 0.47–0.53 (47%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Scandella – Chiarot2:05
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Petry – Mete9:11
xG 0.02–0.23 (6%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).