Sat, Jan 4, 2020·Prudential Center, Newark
Colorado Avalanche 5, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 213 | 311 | 534 |
| NJD | 012 | 04 | 214 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:23COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 15:34COLIan ColeAssists: Vladislav Kamenev, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 0:08COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.19 xG3–0
- P3 6:36NJDBlake ColemanSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 13:49COLPierre-Edouard BellemareSHUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 18:37NJDJesper BoqvistPPAssists: Sami Vatanen, Pavel Zacha · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 19:44COLMikko RantanenENAssists: Samuel Girard, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.58 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P2 0:46NJDDamon Severson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:04NJDMiles Wood: Holding2 min
- P3 7:35COLRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:37COLTyson Jost: Interference2 min
- P3 13:49NJDWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:49NJDJesper Boqvist: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 13:49NJDWayne Simmonds: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 16:47COLMatt Calvert: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – Compher – Rantanen7:17
xG 0.47–0.05 (90%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Calvert – Kadri – Nieto9:56
xG 0.74–0.33 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Bellemare – Kamenev – Jost8:34
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Donskoi – Landeskog – MacKinnon10:42
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard13:46
xG 1.14–0.39 (74%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Graves – Makar15:16
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Cole – Zadorov13:06
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Palmieri – Zacha – Hischier12:51
xG 0.34–0.43 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Hayden – Rooney – Boqvist6:57
xG 0.12–0.25 (32%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Street – Wood8:24
xG 0.31–0.54 (37%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Gusev10:32
xG 0.22–0.61 (26%)attempts 7–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Subban – Butcher2:03
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Greene – Subban10:27
xG 0.35–0.49 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Butcher – Mueller8:55
xG 0.21–0.36 (36%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).