Sat, Jan 4, 2020·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Nashville Predators 4, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 220 | 08 | 210 | 438 |
| LAK | 011 | 19 | 04 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:21NSHRocco GrimaldiAssists: Craig Smith, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 19:16NSHRyan JohansenGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 5:57LAKAlex IafalloPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 9:37NSHYakov TreninAssists: Matt Irwin, Austin Watson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 10:46NSHCraig SmithAssists: Rocco Grimaldi · Backhand, 0.19 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:16NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Holding2 min
- P1 13:20LAKAustin Wagner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:24NSHMikael Granlund: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:16LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:16NSHJarred Tinordi: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:16LAKMartin Frk: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:33NSHCraig Smith: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:19LAKBlake Lizotte: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:00LAKBen Hutton: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:21LAKMatt Roy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:48NSHNick Bonino: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Smith – Grimaldi7:13
xG 0.72–0.07 (92%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Watson – Blackwell – Trenin7:46
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Turris – Jarnkrok – Granlund9:44
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:17
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ekholm2:10
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi11:22
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Tinordi11:03
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Toffoli – Iafallo11:42
xG 0.65–0.52 (56%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Clifford – Amadio – Luff8:36
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
- Kempe – Wagner – Lizotte9:05
xG 0.32–0.55 (37%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Carter – Frk – Prokhorkin7:48
xG 0.05–0.72 (7%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Doughty – Walker15:08
xG 0.72–0.84 (46%)attempts 18–21goals 0–1
- Hutton – Roy15:02
xG 0.38–0.60 (38%)attempts 16–10goals 0–2
- Martinez – Clague12:03
xG 0.17–0.95 (15%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).