Sun, Jan 5, 2020·Capital One Arena, Washington
San Jose Sharks 4, Washington Capitals 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 013 | 311 | 13 | 02 | 429 |
| WSH | 010 | 212 | 26 | 11 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:25SJSEvander KanePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Timo Meier · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 7:29WSHNic DowdAssists: Brendan Leipsic, Michal Kempny · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 10:06SJSEvander KaneAssists: Logan Couture, Melker Karlsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 16:49SJSEvander KanePPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 18:42WSHJakub VranaAssists: T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 19:00SJSLogan CoutureENAssists: Tomas Hertl, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–2
- P3 19:13WSHJakub VranaAssists: Lars Eller, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 19:45WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- OT 2:01WSHLars EllerGWGAssists: John Carlson, Braden Holtby · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:13WSHRichard Panik: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:56SJSEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:29WSHRadko Gudas: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:31WSHNic Dowd: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:26SJSEvander Kane: Interference2 min
- P3 14:52WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Hertl12:35
xG 1.17–0.32 (79%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Noesen – Karlsson – Kellman6:11
xG 0.14–0.30 (33%)attempts 3–7goals 0–2
- Kane – Goodrow – Meier12:41
xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc9:53
xG 0.16–0.53 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Simek11:46
xG 1.09–0.52 (68%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon18:05
xG 0.64–0.40 (61%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson14:44
xG 0.23–0.83 (22%)attempts 13–18goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana12:51
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway8:01
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Panik8:21
xG 0.31–0.19 (61%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson10:32
xG 0.23–1.08 (18%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Kempny2:38
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Orlov – Gudas2:18
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov3:57
xG 0.13–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).