Sun, Jan 5, 2020·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 211 | 013 | 211 | 435 |
| PIT | 110 | 013 | 09 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 3:52PITJared McCannAssists: Dominik Simon, John Marino · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 10:44FLABrett ConnollyGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 8:52FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Frank Vatrano, Riley Stillman · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 17:32FLAEvgenii DadonovENAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:13FLAMike Matheson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:02FLADominic Toninato: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:09PITJared McCann: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:09FLAFrank Vatrano: Interference2 min
- P2 15:14FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:40PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:13PITThomas Di Pauli: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:13FLADominic Toninato: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Toninato – Vatrano11:11
xG 0.71–0.38 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov13:02
xG 0.70–0.37 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Hawryluk – Malgin9:42
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Connolly – Trocheck – Acciari13:21
xG 0.53–0.68 (44%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Stillman15:56
xG 0.84–0.49 (63%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Matheson – Ekblad21:13
xG 0.76–0.48 (61%)attempts 25–14goals 1–0
- Yandle – Brown11:15
xG 0.68–0.47 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese11:55
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – McCann – Simon12:00
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Galchenyuk – Di Pauli – Blandisi6:56
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
- Malkin – Rust – Kahun16:36
xG 0.33–0.77 (30%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Riikola12:50
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Marino18:55
xG 0.76–0.75 (50%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Johnson – Letang18:48
xG 0.48–1.14 (30%)attempts 12–25goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).