Sun, Jan 5, 2020·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 5, Minnesota Wild 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 214 | 010 | 213 | 00 | 2 | 537 |
| MIN | 39 | 012 | 110 | 03 | 1 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:01MINKevin FialaPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:32CGYMilan LucicPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Mikael Backlund · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 10:06MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 15:40CGYTravis HamonicAssists: Mikael Backlund, Johnny Gaudreau · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P1 19:14MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Mathew Dumba, Luke Kunin · Snap, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 1:55CGYMichael StoneAssists: TJ Brodie, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 2:37MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 14:32CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. MIN Kevin Fiala stopped
- 2. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 3. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 4. CGY Matthew Tkachuk stopped
- 5. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 6. CGY Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 7. MIN Ryan Donato scored
- 8. CGY Derek Ryan scored
- 9. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 10. CGY Andrew Mangiapane stopped
- 11. MIN Ryan Hartman stopped
- 12. CGY Elias Lindholm stopped
- 13. MIN Luke Kunin stopped
- 14. CGY Dillon Dube scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:55CGYTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:14MINMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 10:54MINJordan Greenway: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:54MINJordan Greenway: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:15MINZach Parise: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- OT 1:05CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Bennett – Tkachuk7:39
xG 0.63–0.30 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube11:37
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan9:50
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Rieder – Jankowski – Bennett2:45
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin16:21
xG 0.88–0.56 (61%)attempts 24–16goals 0–0
- Giordano – Andersson10:09
xG 0.75–0.45 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie3:33
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestRask – Hartman – Greenway8:39
xG 0.52–0.09 (86%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin12:44
xG 0.80–0.82 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Koivu – Parise – Fiala13:13
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Staal – Zuccarello – Donato11:18
xG 0.35–0.58 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba18:40
xG 1.02–0.62 (62%)attempts 23–25goals 1–0
- Hunt – Soucy11:06
xG 0.66–0.58 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Suter – Spurgeon18:39
xG 0.31–1.18 (21%)attempts 15–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).