Sun, Jan 5, 2020·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 2, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 28 | 05 | 08 | 221 |
| CHI | 012 | 26 | 29 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21DETFilip ZadinaPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 16:53DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Darren Helm · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 15:07CHIDylan StromeAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 15:52CHIDylan SikuraAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 8:47CHIAdam BoqvistGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 19:40CHIDominik KubalikENAssists: Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:20DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:42CHIDominik Kubalik: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:36CHIConnor Murphy: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:36DETMike Green: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:32CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:54DETBrian Lashoff: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carpenter won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Perlini – Ehn5:13
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Filppula – Glendening – Fabbri2:42
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Erne6:58
xG 0.10–0.11 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Zadina3:38
xG 0.11–0.27 (30%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Nemeth15:26
xG 1.15–0.20 (85%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Lashoff – Bowey10:04
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Daley – Hronek10:06
xG 0.20–0.86 (19%)attempts 5–20goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kubalik – Quenneville11:26
xG 0.95–0.34 (73%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Strome – DeBrincat – Dach9:56
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Highmore – Kampf7:13
xG 0.04–0.18 (18%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Carpenter – Sikura9:33
xG 0.33–0.64 (34%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Gustafsson16:13
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Keith – Boqvist13:57
xG 0.95–0.92 (51%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Maatta – Gilbert11:31
xG 0.16–0.29 (35%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).