Sun, Jan 5, 2020·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 4, Anaheim Ducks 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 14 | 110 | 210 | 02 | 1 | 426 |
| ANA | 121 | 315 | 010 | 01 | 2 | 547 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:06ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Daniel Sprong, Ryan Getzlaf · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 19:11NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Colin Blackwell, Yakov Trenin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 2:59NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Mattias Ekholm · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 12:34ANACam FowlerAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 14:52ANADaniel SprongPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–3
- P2 17:22ANAAdam HenriquePPAssists: Sam Steel, Ryan Getzlaf · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 4:13NSHCraig SmithAssists: Nick Bonino, Rocco Grimaldi · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–4
- P3 6:30NSHRocco GrimaldiAssists: Roman Josi, Nick Bonino · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NSH Filip Forsberg scored
- 2. ANA Ondrej Kase scored
- 3. NSH Kyle Turris stopped
- 4. ANA Maxime Comtois stopped
- 5. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 6. ANA Jakob Silfverberg stopped
- 7. NSH Ryan Johansen stopped
- 8. ANA Sam Steel stopped
- 9. NSH Mikael Granlund stopped
- 10. ANA Ryan Getzlaf scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:03NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03ANANicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:15NSHViktor Arvidsson: Embellishment2 min
- P1 19:15ANAMax Jones: Interference2 min
- P2 1:58ANACam Fowler: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:36NSHKyle Turris: Interference2 min
- P2 8:08NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:01NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:06NSHAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:58ANAMaxime Comtois: Holding2 min
- P3 17:30NSHRocco Grimaldi: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blackwell won the faceoff against Shore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Smith – Grimaldi11:38
xG 1.05–0.45 (70%)attempts 20–13goals 2–1
- Watson – Blackwell – Trenin10:03
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson8:26
xG 0.28–0.71 (28%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Turris – Jarnkrok – Granlund8:42
xG 0.17–0.65 (21%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – Carrier7:38
xG 0.62–0.41 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi16:49
xG 0.76–1.14 (40%)attempts 14–23goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Tinordi16:38
xG 0.45–0.88 (34%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Henrique – Sprong11:07
xG 0.94–0.31 (75%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Kase – Steel – Jones11:04
xG 0.75–0.31 (71%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Comtois – Lundeström8:32
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Shore – Rowney8:14
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm14:18
xG 1.47–0.16 (90%)attempts 22–7goals 1–1
- Del Zotto – Larsson11:11
xG 0.46–0.60 (43%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Fowler – Gudbranson15:42
xG 0.59–0.92 (39%)attempts 16–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).