Mon, Jan 6, 2020·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 010 | 26 | 28 | 424 |
| LAK | 116 | 010 | 111 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Sean Walker, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P2 6:53CBJNathan GerbeAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:40CBJScott HarringtonAssists: Sonny Milano, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 4:49CBJKevin StenlundGWGAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 11:15LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Sean Walker, Kyle Clifford · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:00CBJGustav NyquistENAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–2
Penalties (1)
- P1 4:02LAKMichael Amadio: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Lizotte
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Jenner – Milano8:19
xG 0.34–0.07 (83%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Gerbe – Foligno – Jenner4:09
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Stenlund – Bemstrom10:41
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Gerbe – Nyquist – Dubois10:01
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Harrington – Nutivaara13:31
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski19:55
xG 0.56–0.81 (41%)attempts 8–24goals 1–0
- Savard – Gavrikov18:23
xG 0.55–1.44 (28%)attempts 14–21goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Brown – Prokhorkin12:16
xG 0.87–0.26 (77%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Amadio10:31
xG 0.68–0.28 (71%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Kempe – Wagner – Lizotte14:28
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Iafallo13:12
xG 0.78–0.60 (56%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Roy12:17
xG 1.18–0.35 (77%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Martinez – Hutton13:21
xG 0.63–0.25 (71%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Doughty – Walker20:16
xG 0.99–0.79 (56%)attempts 26–12goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).