Tue, Jan 7, 2020·Madison Square Garden, New York
Colorado Avalanche 3, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 29 | 110 | 013 | 332 |
| NYR | 211 | 29 | 19 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:44COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Samuel Girard, Andre Burakovsky · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 6:34COLNathan MacKinnonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 8:57NYRChris KreiderAssists: Ryan Strome, Tony DeAngelo · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 15:23NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Jesper Fast · Slap, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 8:05NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 11:32COLJ.T. CompherSHAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Valeri Nichushkin · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 13:39NYRRyan StromeGWGAssists: Jesper Fast, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 19:32NYRArtemi PanarinENAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.52 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:42COLJoonas Donskoi: Holding2 min
- P1 11:04NYRJacob Trouba: Interference2 min
- P1 16:23NYRRyan Lindgren: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:23COLNazem Kadri: Instigator2 min
- P1 16:23COLNazem Kadri: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:23COLNazem Kadri: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 2:20NYRBrett Howden: Interference2 min
- P3 6:15NYRRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:50COLCale Makar: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Bellemare – Jost4:28
xG 0.40–0.04 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Calvert – Burakovsky – Compher2:39
xG 0.30–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Compher2:57
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen11:36
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard12:18
xG 1.24–0.28 (82%)attempts 21–5goals 3–0
- Girard – Makar2:15
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Cole – Zadorov8:28
xG 0.08–0.19 (29%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Panarin9:41
xG 0.76–0.35 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich12:01
xG 0.51–0.35 (60%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Howden – Chytil – Kakko6:14
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – DeAngelo11:33
xG 1.06–0.43 (71%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Staal – Fox2:43
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Skjei – Trouba15:57
xG 0.48–0.53 (48%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).