Tue, Jan 7, 2020·Capital One Arena, Washington
Ottawa Senators 1, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 07 | 012 | 127 |
| WSH | 013 | 315 | 313 | 641 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:40OTTArtem AnisimovAssists: Rudolfs Balcers · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 1:19WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Jakub Vrana · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 8:32WSHRadko GudasGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Michal Kempny · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 17:15WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 0:41WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Slap, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 2:08WSHLars EllerAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler, Richard Panik · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–5
- P3 16:19WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Tom Wilson · Slap, 0.05 xG1–6
Penalties (1)
- P2 13:53WSHCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Batherson – Tkachuk5:01
xG 0.39–0.09 (81%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Paul – White – Batherson6:43
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Namestnikov – Balcers6:03
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Anisimov – Namestnikov – White2:13
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Chabot2:48
xG 0.54–0.05 (92%)attempts 8–1goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Reilly2:33
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Reilly – Englund10:52
xG 0.86–0.82 (51%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Eller – Panik13:52
xG 0.87–0.74 (54%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway9:39
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson14:36
xG 0.74–0.68 (52%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana14:53
xG 0.60–0.80 (43%)attempts 10–15goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov4:01
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Carlson – Kempny16:36
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Orlov – Jensen14:59
xG 1.00–0.89 (53%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).