Tue, Jan 7, 2020·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Boston Bruins 6, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 113 | 213 | 310 | 636 |
| NSH | 08 | 115 | 112 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 8:21BOSDanton HeinenAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 10:54NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Matt Duchene, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 17:42BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 2:51BOSChris WagnerPPAssists: Par Lindholm, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–1
- P3 18:06NSHMikael GranlundPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Filip Forsberg · Deflected, 0.37 xG4–2
- P3 19:05BOSDavid KrejciENAssists: Tuukka Rask · Wrist, 0.44 xG5–2
- P3 19:27BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Brett Ritchie, Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.19 xG6–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:14BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P1 0:14NSHViktor Arvidsson: Embellishment2 min
- P1 6:10BOSSean Kuraly: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:19BOSBrett Ritchie: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:01BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:28BOSMatt Grzelcyk: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:29NSHKyle Turris: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:52NSHRocco Grimaldi: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:40BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:40NSHYakov Trenin: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:40BOSZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:44BOSJohn Moore: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:38NSHRoman Josi: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:46BOSCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak7:35
xG 0.92–0.11 (89%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Lindholm7:36
xG 0.68–0.12 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Coyle – Ritchie – Heinen5:36
xG 0.50–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Krejci – Bjork – DeBrusk8:21
xG 0.29–1.16 (20%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Grzelcyk9:01
xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo2:59
xG 0.32–0.04 (88%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo9:06
xG 0.73–0.54 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Jarnkrok – Granlund9:39
xG 1.09–0.24 (82%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Turris – Watson – Trenin5:59
xG 0.19–0.43 (31%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson7:03
xG 0.42–0.90 (32%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi8:53
xG 0.21–0.78 (22%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Ekholm14:12
xG 1.17–0.52 (69%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Irwin – Tinordi9:25
xG 0.55–1.19 (32%)attempts 10–13goals 0–3
- Weber – Josi13:42
xG 0.22–1.21 (15%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).