Tue, Jan 7, 2020·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 2, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 214 | 08 | 228 |
| CHI | 114 | 012 | 06 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:28CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Adam Boqvist, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 0:14CGYElias LindholmAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 16:01CGYElias LindholmGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:54CGYNoah Hanifin: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:52CHIJohn Quenneville: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:47CHIZack Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:08CHIErik Gustafsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:51CHIZack Smith: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:22CGYTravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Lindholm – Tkachuk7:37
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube4:17
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Jankowski – Bennett3:31
xG 0.06–0.02 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Backlund – Gaudreau – Monahan5:59
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie16:20
xG 0.93–0.42 (69%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Andersson – Kylington10:21
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin14:12
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Nylander – Kampf5:51
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Dach3:54
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Strome – DeBrincat – Dach6:36
xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Kane – Carpenter – Sikura7:18
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Boqvist16:36
xG 0.62–0.40 (61%)attempts 21–16goals 0–1
- Maatta – Gilbert11:10
xG 0.31–0.52 (38%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Murphy – Gustafsson13:02
xG 0.29–0.84 (26%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).