Wed, Jan 8, 2020·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Winnipeg Jets 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 24 | 111 | 08 | 05 | 3 | 428 |
| TOR | 16 | 19 | 111 | 02 | 2 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:00WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Blake Wheeler, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 4:56TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 18:00WPGMason AppletonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 6:00TORDmytro TimashovAssists: Adam Brooks, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 11:45WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Tucker Poolman · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 19:46TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Morgan Rielly · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TOR Jason Spezza scored
- 2. WPG Kyle Connor stopped
- 3. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
- 4. WPG Patrik Laine scored
- 5. TOR Auston Matthews scored
- 6. WPG Mark Scheifele scored
- 7. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 8. WPG Blake Wheeler scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:42WPGBlake Wheeler: Holding2 min
- P2 3:47TORDmytro Timashov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:31TORJohn Tavares: Holding2 min
- P2 13:20WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:55WPGSami Niku: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Copp – Ehlers5:16
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Copp3:51
xG 0.01–0.10 (8%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Roslovic4:45
xG 0.12–0.31 (28%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine14:36
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Pionk16:58
xG 0.52–0.45 (54%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Bitetto – Niku7:43
xG 0.03–0.36 (8%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Poolman – Morrissey16:33
xG 0.28–0.95 (23%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Kerfoot – Nylander12:43
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews12:19
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Spezza – Kapanen – Engvall7:50
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Gauthier – Engvall – Brooks2:04
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarincin – Ceci10:14
xG 0.57–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Barrie – Rielly16:18
xG 0.92–0.46 (67%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Ceci – Dermott3:49
xG 0.09–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).