Wed, Jan 8, 2020·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 28 | 011 | 09 | 228 |
| PHI | 213 | 13 | 011 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 7:11WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 12:34WSHJakub VranaAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Michal Kempny · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 19:18PHIRobert HaggAssists: Michael Raffl, Philippe Myers · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 17:59PHIKevin HayesSHGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:09WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:09WSHRichard Panik: Misconduct10 min
- P2 3:40PHIPhilippe Myers: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:56PHIMikhail Vorobyev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:33PHISean Couturier: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:49PHISean Couturier: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:30PHIPhilippe Myers: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:24WSHDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway8:40
xG 0.38–0.60 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana9:47
xG 0.29–0.60 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson8:42
xG 0.23–0.67 (26%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Hagelin – Eller – Panik9:45
xG 0.10–0.81 (11%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Gudas5:51
xG 0.78–0.64 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Carlson – Orlov2:29
xG 0.08–0.05 (65%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Gudas – Siegenthaler7:20
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny11:31
xG 1.14–0.23 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Aube-Kubel7:38
xG 0.96–0.31 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Laughton – Vorobyev – Farabee5:37
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Voracek – Pitlick – Raffl10:31
xG 0.14–0.66 (18%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Provorov15:16
xG 1.12–0.30 (79%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Hagg – Friedman10:51
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Myers15:38
xG 0.61–0.93 (40%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).