Thu, Jan 9, 2020·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Los Angeles Kings 5, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 418 | 03 | 12 | 523 |
| VGK | 010 | 224 | 012 | 246 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:40LAKAlec MartinezUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 15:01LAKBen HuttonAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Alex Iafallo · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 18:44LAKTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P1 19:56LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Michael Amadio, Matt Roy · Tip-in, 0.26 xG4–0
- P2 14:38VGKReilly SmithUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–1
- P2 15:34VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Paul Stastny, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 19:51LAKAdrian KempePPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–2
Penalties (2)
- P3 6:58LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:50VGKPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Toffoli – Iafallo11:09
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Kempe – Amadio – Wagner8:55
xG 0.52–0.60 (46%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Luff5:39
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Carter – Brown – Prokhorkin8:19
xG 0.17–0.78 (18%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Roy17:32
xG 0.77–0.61 (56%)attempts 16–23goals 2–0
- Martinez – Doughty22:08
xG 0.45–1.40 (24%)attempts 17–27goals 2–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Nosek – Tuch11:40
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Stephenson13:58
xG 0.68–0.27 (72%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone15:36
xG 1.08–0.68 (61%)attempts 26–15goals 1–2
- Reaves – Carrier – Roy7:30
xG 0.44–0.24 (64%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Hague14:02
xG 1.20–0.36 (77%)attempts 25–11goals 2–1
- McNabb – Schmidt15:12
xG 0.91–0.34 (73%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Holden – Theodore17:05
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).