Fri, Jan 10, 2020·Pepsi Center, Denver
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 111 | 210 | 12 | 430 |
| COL | 19 | 17 | 115 | 00 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:38COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 13:29PITTeddy BluegerAssists: Dominik Kahun, John Marino · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 18:20COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 1:14PITBryan RustAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Dominik Kahun · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 15:43PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Dominik Kahun, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 19:29COLMatt CalvertAssists: Cale Makar, Andre Burakovsky · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 3:19PITJared McCannGWGAssists: Teddy Blueger, John Marino · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:09PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:06COLIan Cole: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:23COLErik Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:03PITPatric Hornqvist: Holding2 min
- P3 16:57PITBryan Rust: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Bellemare
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rust – Kahun12:22
xG 0.87–0.52 (62%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese11:19
xG 0.56–0.51 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Agozzino – Galchenyuk – Lafferty6:34
xG 0.01–0.04 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – McCann – Simon10:41
xG 0.14–0.37 (28%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Letang18:05
xG 1.08–0.85 (56%)attempts 23–16goals 2–0
- Ruhwedel – Pettersson2:22
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Marino18:17
xG 0.60–0.78 (44%)attempts 14–23goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:09
xG 0.89–0.34 (72%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin9:45
xG 0.52–0.08 (87%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Compher – Kamenev – Jost6:23
xG 0.03–0.01 (81%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Calvert – Nieto – Bellemare10:40
xG 0.21–0.45 (32%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard14:22
xG 1.26–0.78 (62%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
- Graves – Makar14:19
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Zadorov – Girard2:17
xG 0.01–0.15 (7%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).