Sat, Jan 11, 2020·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vancouver Canucks 6, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 113 | 19 | 413 | 635 |
| BUF | 19 | 19 | 110 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:44BUFBrandon MontourAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 15:33VANBrock BoeserAssists: Troy Stecher, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 3:44VANBo HorvatSHAssists: Tanner Pearson, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 6:25BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 1:17VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 3:28BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Kyle Okposo, Rasmus Ristolainen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 6:24VANBrock BoeserGWGAssists: Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 7:38VANJake VirtanenAssists: Tyler Motte, Adam Gaudette · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–3
- P3 17:48VANLoui ErikssonAssists: Bo Horvat, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.57 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:17BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:05VANJay Beagle: Holding2 min
- P2 6:07VANJay Beagle: Holding2 min
- P2 9:34VANElias Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:01BUFKyle Okposo: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson10:24
xG 0.71–0.22 (76%)attempts 13–9goals 3–0
- Roussel – Virtanen – Gaudette10:51
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Beagle – Schaller – Motte8:03
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Pearson – Horvat13:09
xG 0.42–0.92 (32%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hughes12:57
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Edler – Stecher12:33
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Edler – Myers2:54
xG 0.05–0.03 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Johansson – Sheary8:59
xG 0.76–0.42 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Johansson – Sheary – Rodrigues2:11
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Johansson – Reinhart – Eichel3:00
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Vesey – Reinhart – Eichel12:51
xG 0.57–0.52 (52%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Dahlin17:32
xG 1.12–0.43 (72%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Jokiharju – Pilut15:13
xG 0.52–0.65 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
- McCabe – Ristolainen12:45
xG 0.16–0.84 (16%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).