Sat, Jan 11, 2020·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 2, Ottawa Senators 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 07 | 02 | 18 | 225 |
| OTT | 08 | 016 | 116 | 02 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:24MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 13:32OTTDrake BathersonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- OT 4:08MTLIlya KovalchukGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:42OTTDylan DeMelo: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:10MTLNick Cousins: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:33OTTDrake Batherson: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:38OTTDrake Batherson: Interference2 min
- P2 10:59OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P3 1:28MTLMarco Scandella: Interference2 min
- P3 1:28OTTChris Tierney: Embellishment2 min
- P3 6:05MTLVictor Mete: Interference2 min
- P3 9:27MTLTomas Tatar: Holding2 min
- P3 15:57MTLMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Tatar – Danault11:18
xG 0.63–0.15 (80%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Domi – Suzuki8:04
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Peca – Cousins – Kotkaniemi7:09
xG 0.18–0.27 (41%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Thompson – Weise – Poehling5:57
xG 0.03–0.39 (7%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Mete12:22
xG 0.89–0.60 (60%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Petry – Scandella13:16
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Kulak – Fleury10:43
xG 0.36–0.14 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Brown – Tkachuk5:05
xG 0.50–0.18 (73%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Namestnikov – Balcers5:28
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Tierney – Duclair – Batherson2:43
xG 0.20–0.05 (81%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Ennis – Tierney – Chlapik2:55
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Reilly13:09
xG 0.90–0.54 (62%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Reilly – Chabot3:00
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Goloubef – Englund6:30
xG 0.05–0.16 (22%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).