Sat, Jan 11, 2020·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
New York Rangers 2, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 16 | 09 | 223 |
| STL | 29 | 313 | 07 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 9:38STLRobert BortuzzoAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 18:41STLVince DunnAssists: Zachary Sanford · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 1:26STLDavid PerronGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 8:49NYRBrett HowdenAssists: Filip Chytil, Pavel Buchnevich · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 10:34STLZachary SanfordAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jacob de la Rose · Slap, 0.27 xG2–4
- P2 14:50STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Brayden Schenn, Oskar Sundqvist · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:32STLRobert Bortuzzo: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 0:21NYRPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:08NYRMika Zibanejad: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:32STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:15STLMackenzie MacEachern: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:15NYRBrendan Smith: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:23NYRBrett Howden: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:00STLVince Dunn: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NYRJacob Trouba: Slashing5 min
- P3 0:00NYRJacob Trouba: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich8:55
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Fast – Strome – Panarin11:23
xG 0.14–0.33 (30%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Howden – Chytil – Kakko10:53
xG 0.07–0.40 (16%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren11:19
xG 0.51–0.09 (84%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
- Skjei – Trouba13:51
xG 0.31–0.47 (40%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- DeAngelo – Hajek11:33
xG 0.16–0.99 (14%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Schwartz – Sundqvist9:52
xG 0.91–0.24 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford9:46
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Steen – Bozak – Thomas10:28
xG 0.07–0.40 (15%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- MacEachern – de la Rose – Barbashev8:54
xG 0.29–0.64 (31%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Dunn14:46
xG 0.56–0.07 (88%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola14:08
xG 1.03–0.77 (57%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Faulk17:16
xG 0.41–0.58 (41%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).