Sat, Jan 11, 2020·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 3, Calgary Flames 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 211 | 16 | 015 | 332 |
| CGY | 212 | 111 | 110 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04CGYElias LindholmSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 5:07EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 9:06EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ethan Bear · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P1 19:19CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 1:24EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Kailer Yamamoto · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 11:34CGYDillon DubeAssists: Derek Ryan · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 0:39CGYElias LindholmGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 18:06EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:06EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:06EDMZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:25CGYNoah Hanifin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Kassian – McDavid10:56
xG 0.66–0.33 (66%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Sheahan – Archibald – Nygard8:49
xG 0.12–0.31 (28%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Gagner – Chiasson – Haas5:33
xG 0.39–0.63 (39%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto15:05
xG 0.83–1.15 (42%)attempts 19–16goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Klefbom18:43
xG 1.05–1.16 (47%)attempts 19–20goals 1–2
- Russell – Jones9:45
xG 0.06–0.33 (16%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear20:18
xG 0.91–1.81 (33%)attempts 18–28goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Gaudreau – Monahan12:21
xG 1.18–0.52 (69%)attempts 18–14goals 1–2
- Rinaldo – Rieder – Bennett8:05
xG 0.60–0.33 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube11:52
xG 0.66–0.55 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk12:27
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Kylington11:55
xG 1.27–0.28 (82%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Giordano – Brodie16:36
xG 1.12–0.56 (67%)attempts 25–12goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin18:33
xG 0.83–1.24 (40%)attempts 13–21goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).