Sat, Jan 11, 2020·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Vegas Golden Knights 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 113 | 12 | 17 | 322 |
| VGK | 07 | 011 | 09 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:38CBJEmil BemstromPPGWGAssists: Seth Jones, Kevin Stenlund · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 2:06CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Scott Harrington, Sonny Milano · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 8:26CBJAlexander WennbergAssists: Kevin Stenlund, Nathan Gerbe · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:33CBJBoone Jenner: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 11:45VGKPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:57VGKJon Merrill: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:01CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:07CBJSonny Milano: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestStenlund – Dubois – Bemstrom2:31
xG 0.16–0.04 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Robinson – Lilja10:58
xG 0.26–0.16 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Wennberg – Stenlund7:36
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Foligno – Nyquist – Jenner11:54
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Harrington – Nutivaara11:22
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski18:12
xG 0.32–0.53 (37%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Savard – Gavrikov16:57
xG 0.31–0.62 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson9:58
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Reaves – Eakin – Nosek8:14
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Tuch13:17
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Stastny – Carrier – Kolesar10:33
xG 0.17–0.16 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Theodore14:54
xG 0.73–0.47 (61%)attempts 21–11goals 0–2
- McNabb – Schmidt10:36
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Merrill – Theodore2:04
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).