Sun, Jan 12, 2020·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vancouver Canucks 4, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 09 | 314 | 17 | 430 |
| MIN | 03 | 19 | 012 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:20VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 11:58MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Luke Kunin, Jonas Brodin · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 12:11VANBo HorvatGWGAssists: Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 13:23VANTroy StecherAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 19:54VANBo HorvatENAssists: Chris Tanev · Backhand, 0.45 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:45VANAntoine Roussel: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 9:52MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:19MINJordan Greenway: Elbowing2 min
- P1 13:21MINJonas Brodin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:10MINJason Zucker: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:48MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:56VANAntoine Roussel: Holding2 min
- P2 7:12VANTim Schaller: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:30MINKevin Fiala: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 15:41VANJake Virtanen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:17VANBo Horvat: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 4:23MINJason Zucker: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:10MINLuke Kunin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson7:18
xG 0.72–0.27 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Eriksson – Pearson – Horvat9:27
xG 0.63–0.28 (69%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Roussel – Virtanen – Gaudette6:12
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Beagle – Schaller – Motte4:59
xG 0.06–0.26 (19%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Stecher11:22
xG 0.80–0.45 (64%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Myers – Fantenberg12:21
xG 0.61–0.45 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hughes11:39
xG 0.28–0.71 (28%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Fiala7:02
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hartman – Donato – Greenway6:11
xG 0.35–0.12 (75%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Zuccarello2:19
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin6:12
xG 0.27–0.56 (32%)attempts 2–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon11:36
xG 0.76–0.55 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Pateryn – Soucy8:06
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba13:20
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).