Sun, Jan 12, 2020·Prudential Center, Newark
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 012 | 18 | 07 | 127 |
| NJD | 010 | 26 | 14 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:37TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 3:10NJDAndy GreeneAssists: Miles Wood, Jack Hughes · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 9:54NJDTravis ZajacGWGAssists: Nikita Gusev, Damon Severson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 19:59NJDMiles WoodENAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.61 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:32TBLYanni Gourde: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:33TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:36NJDAndy Greene: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:34TBLOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:04NJDJohn Hayden: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:48NJDConnor Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:48TBLYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:37TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point7:44
xG 1.28–0.03 (98%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point5:24
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gourde – Verhaeghe – Stephens4:11
xG 0.29–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Johnson – Palat – Cirelli4:47
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta10:33
xG 0.99–0.06 (94%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Hedman – Cernak4:40
xG 0.35–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Sergachev12:17
xG 0.52–0.30 (63%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Coleman – Gusev9:39
xG 0.52–0.31 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Gusev – Bratt – Hischier2:21
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Zacha – Bratt – Hischier11:01
xG 0.21–0.56 (28%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Wood – Hughes6:31
xG 0.17–0.58 (22%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Vatanen – Severson12:24
xG 0.47–0.62 (43%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Carrick – Butcher9:36
xG 0.00–0.58 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–0
- Greene – Subban14:32
xG 0.12–0.85 (12%)attempts 5–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).