Mon, Jan 13, 2020·Centre Bell, Montreal
Calgary Flames 0, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 09 | 015 | 031 |
| MTL | 117 | 015 | 15 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:30MTLJordan WealGWGAssists: Jeff Petry, Dale Weise · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 9:45MTLRyan PoehlingUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:01CGYDerek Ryan: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:07CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:23CGYSam Bennett: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:56MTLRyan Poehling: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:50MTLVictor Mete: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Monahan – Bennett3:37
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk3:47
xG 0.08–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan3:27
xG 0.08–0.10 (46%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Lucic – Bennett – Ryan2:55
xG 0.19–0.23 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Kylington11:57
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamonic2:13
xG 0.03–0.03 (49%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Kylington2:27
xG 0.01–0.07 (11%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Tatar – Danault12:13
xG 0.88–0.30 (74%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Cousins – Poehling – Kotkaniemi8:07
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Thompson – Weise – Weal5:40
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Lehkonen – Domi – Suzuki9:16
xG 0.08–0.51 (13%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMete – Fleury9:15
xG 0.60–0.37 (62%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Weber – Chiarot15:16
xG 0.87–0.64 (58%)attempts 23–19goals 0–0
- Petry – Scandella15:42
xG 0.70–0.54 (57%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).