Mon, Jan 13, 2020·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 2, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 016 | 111 | 234 |
| NYR | 117 | 28 | 311 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18NYIJordan EberleAssists: Brock Nelson · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 8:14NYRJesper FastSHAssists: Artemi Panarin, Brady Skjei · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 5:06NYRChris KreiderAssists: Artemi Panarin, Brady Skjei · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 11:11NYRAdam FoxSHGWGAssists: Jesper Fast, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 0:49NYRArtemi PanarinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 8:54NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Ryan Strome, Jesper Fast · Snap, 0.36 xG1–5
- P3 10:15NYRJacob TroubaAssists: Adam Fox, Filip Chytil · Slap, 0.03 xG1–6
- P3 12:48NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Derick Brassard · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–6
Penalties (18)
- P1 2:13NYIRoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:13NYRMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:13NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:13NYRBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:13NYIMatt Martin: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 2:13NYRBrendan Smith: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 9:18NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:37NYRTony DeAngelo: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:11NYIJohnny Boychuk: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:03NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:51NYIBrock Nelson: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:51NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:51NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:51NYRTony DeAngelo: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:51NYIRoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:51NYRChris Kreider: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:51NYRTony DeAngelo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:51NYIRoss Johnston: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Barzal – Beauvillier5:44
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal2:41
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson12:20
xG 0.36–0.49 (42%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Brassard – Kuhnhackl – Beauvillier2:00
xG 0.05–0.25 (16%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Dobson11:53
xG 0.86–0.53 (62%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Toews12:23
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Leddy – Pulock17:17
xG 0.20–1.69 (11%)attempts 11–23goals 1–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Panarin11:07
xG 1.19–0.17 (87%)attempts 18–9goals 4–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich9:57
xG 0.84–0.26 (76%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Howden – Chytil – Kakko10:19
xG 0.40–1.03 (28%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren11:01
xG 0.50–0.01 (97%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Skjei – Trouba17:18
xG 0.98–0.50 (66%)attempts 20–18goals 2–1
- Staal – DeAngelo13:23
xG 1.10–1.00 (52%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).