Mon, Jan 13, 2020·Capital One Arena, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 0, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 06 | 010 | 07 | 023 |
| WSH | 214 | 05 | 011 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:58WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 17:18WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Jakub Vrana, John Carlson · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:11CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:22CARWarren Foegele: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:01CARDougie Hamilton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 17:18CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:33WSHDmitry Orlov: Interference2 min
- P2 9:32WSHLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:06WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:23CARJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:38CARDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Foegele – Svechnikov10:33
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Wallmark6:26
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Haula – Dzingel – Necas7:29
xG 0.05–0.46 (9%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho9:03
xG 0.27–0.69 (28%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamilton – Slavin11:48
xG 0.41–0.51 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Pesce12:00
xG 0.24–0.67 (26%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Edmundson – van Riemsdyk11:31
xG 0.08–0.72 (10%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Eller – Panik10:22
xG 0.58–0.05 (93%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana9:03
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway5:29
xG 0.30–0.02 (93%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson9:13
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Siegenthaler9:16
xG 0.84–0.02 (97%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Carlson – Orlov2:11
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kempny13:28
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).