Tue, Jan 14, 2020·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 04 | 112 | 110 | 226 |
| BUF | 013 | 25 | 28 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:55VGKTomas NosekAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Shea Theodore · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 6:32BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 19:41BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 1:43VGKReilly SmithPPAssists: Shea Theodore, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 7:57BUFJack EichelGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 19:35BUFCurtis LazarENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.51 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:29VGKAlex Tuch: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:29BUFEvan Rodrigues: Holding2 min
- P2 3:04BUFColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:16VGKMax Pacioretty: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:14VGKJonathan Marchessault: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 1:36BUFColin Miller: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:36BUFColin Miller: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:53VGKNicolas Hague: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Lazar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Carrier – Tuch2:23
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Stastny – Nosek – Tuch7:07
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson10:17
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:11
xG 0.22–0.40 (35%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Hague12:18
xG 0.38–0.16 (70%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Theodore2:48
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Holden – Theodore14:57
xG 0.59–0.65 (48%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestVesey – Sheary – Rodrigues3:36
xG 0.43–0.07 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Frolik – Johansson – Lazar2:49
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Reinhart – Eichel11:37
xG 0.40–0.38 (52%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Frolik – Johansson – Sheary7:06
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin5:01
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Pilut4:00
xG 0.25–0.06 (81%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Miller – Montour5:45
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).