Tue, Jan 14, 2020·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 012 | 19 | 18 | 11 | 330 |
| OTT | 212 | 05 | 05 | 00 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:33OTTConnor BrownAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 7:21OTTChris TierneyAssists: Thomas Chabot, Connor Brown · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 17:20CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 3:41CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Jonathan Toews, Slater Koekkoek · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 0:42CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 5:11CHIDominik Kubalik: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 15:03OTTMark Borowiecki: Elbowing2 min
- P1 17:48CHISlater Koekkoek: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Kubalik10:01
xG 0.75–0.04 (95%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Smith – Sikura – Highmore6:31
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Kubalik – Caggiula4:43
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Nylander – Caggiula4:19
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Murphy3:11
xG 0.36–0.04 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Maatta – Koekkoek15:02
xG 0.32–0.06 (85%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Keith – Boqvist16:45
xG 0.38–0.50 (43%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Namestnikov – Balcers3:09
xG 0.44–0.02 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ennis – White – Chlapik5:12
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tierney – Chlapik – Batherson5:14
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ennis – White – Balcers2:52
xG 0.02–0.11 (12%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Reilly13:18
xG 0.64–0.42 (61%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Zaitsev13:50
xG 0.42–0.51 (45%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Chabot19:30
xG 0.59–1.22 (32%)attempts 10–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).