Tue, Jan 14, 2020·Pepsi Center, Denver
Dallas Stars 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 04 | 112 | 112 | 12 | 330 |
| COL | 216 | 013 | 014 | 00 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:04COLNikita ZadorovAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Deflected, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 15:27COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Ryan Graves · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 9:54DALDenis GurianovPPAssists: Roope Hintz, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 14:37DALJason DickinsonAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Blake Comeau · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 1:54DALEsa LindellGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P2 4:34COLTyson Jost: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:16COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:21DALRoman Polak: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:28COLErik Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:32DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min
- P3 3:56COLMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:56DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Dowling – Janmark3:57
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Kiviranta3:36
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Dowling – Janmark – Kiviranta2:03
xG 0.01–0.11 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Dickinson5:11
xG 0.04–0.15 (21%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen7:23
xG 0.13–0.12 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen2:05
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Sekera – Polak7:42
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:16
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin7:07
xG 0.41–0.06 (87%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Compher – Kamenev – Jost3:25
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Calvert – Nieto – Bellemare6:05
xG 0.13–0.14 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Zadorov9:34
xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Graves – Makar9:44
xG 0.31–0.02 (93%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard8:53
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).