Tue, Jan 14, 2020·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 2, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 212 | 012 | 08 | 232 |
| EDM | 213 | 110 | 19 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:01EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 10:42NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 15:41NSHColin BlackwellAssists: Nick Bonino, Yannick Weber · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P1 19:42EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Alex Chiasson, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.42 xG2–2
- P2 9:09EDMJosh ArchibaldGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 19:11EDMLeon DraisaitlENAssists: Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.67 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:01EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:51NSHYannick Weber: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:52NSHMikael Granlund: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:13EDMJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:26EDMKailer Yamamoto: Interference2 min
- P3 11:42NSHRocco Grimaldi: Interference2 min
- P3 18:37NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg9:02
xG 0.71–0.20 (78%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Arvidsson10:01
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Turris – Blackwell – Trenin11:11
xG 0.22–0.36 (37%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi7:33
xG 0.40–1.12 (26%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro14:03
xG 0.82–0.62 (57%)attempts 14–19goals 0–2
- Hamhuis – Carrier8:57
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Josi – Ekholm2:15
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Russell – Nygard8:13
xG 0.43–0.33 (56%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Neal – Archibald – McDavid9:22
xG 0.61–0.68 (47%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto10:51
xG 0.36–0.47 (43%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Gagner – Chiasson – Haas6:24
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom16:33
xG 0.90–0.48 (65%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Nurse – Bear17:09
xG 0.77–0.83 (48%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
- Russell – Jones9:40
xG 0.34–0.60 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).