Wed, Jan 15, 2020·Centre Bell, Montreal
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 211 | 111 | 16 | 428 |
| MTL | 012 | 110 | 011 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:42CHIZack SmithSHAssists: Drake Caggiula · Snap, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 8:32CHIZack SmithGWGAssists: Slater Koekkoek, Olli Maatta · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 0:54MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 11:27CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 11:40CHIDrake CaggiulaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:12MTLCale Fleury: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:30CHIKirby Dach: Holding2 min
- P2 8:54CHIDrake Caggiula: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:52MTLMax Domi: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:24CHIZack Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:04MTLNick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Kubalik4:21
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Toews – Kubalik – Caggiula6:12
xG 0.77–0.59 (57%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Carpenter – Nylander – Caggiula4:17
xG 0.25–0.18 (59%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- DeBrincat – Kampf – Dach9:43
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Koekkoek11:28
xG 1.11–0.05 (96%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Murphy – Gustafsson12:33
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Murphy – Maatta2:09
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – Domi – Suzuki9:50
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Thompson – Weise – Weal8:06
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Kovalchuk – Tatar – Danault13:19
xG 0.55–0.79 (41%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Cousins – Poehling – Kotkaniemi8:16
xG 0.37–0.63 (37%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Scandella12:16
xG 0.87–0.52 (63%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Weber – Mete2:02
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Mete – Fleury13:07
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).