Wed, Jan 15, 2020·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Philadelphia Flyers 4, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 29 | 17 | 11 | 425 |
| STL | 114 | 08 | 211 | 00 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:24STLJustin FaulkPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 12:43PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 15:43PHIMichael RafflAssists: Robert Hagg, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 0:26PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 10:35STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Brayden Schenn, David Perron · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 13:39STLAlexander SteenAssists: Robert Thomas, Jaden Schwartz · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 3:33PHIJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Ivan Provorov, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:09PHIMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:59PHIMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:06STLBrayden Schenn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:43STLIvan Barbashev: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:43PHITravis Sanheim: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00STLDavid Perron: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:03PHIMichael Raffl: Holding2 min
- P3 1:22PHIKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:01PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:36PHITravis Konecny: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Hayes – Konecny7:14
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Aube-Kubel4:29
xG 0.17–0.06 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Raffl8:13
xG 0.54–0.49 (52%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Stewart – Pitlick – Bunnaman3:49
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Provorov12:15
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Hagg – Friedman7:07
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Myers9:47
xG 0.28–0.58 (32%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Sanford9:01
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Sundqvist9:29
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- MacEachern – de la Rose – Barbashev4:23
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Bozak – Thomas6:03
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Dunn11:58
xG 0.46–0.22 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Faulk11:02
xG 0.64–0.52 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola6:53
xG 0.09–0.22 (30%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).